Here’s the latest May 2026 petrol and diesel price forecast

Global energy markets remain under intense strain as ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues to destabilise one of the world’s most critical oil supply routes, keeping fuel prices elevated and placing growing pressure on import-dependent economies like South Africa.

The strategic waterway, which normally handles around 20% of global oil and gas shipments, remains heavily affected by military tensions and shipping restrictions linked to the escalating United States-Iran standoff.

Instability has pushed prices higher

While limited commercial traffic is still moving through the region under strict security controls, many operators have delayed voyages, rerouted shipments, or reduced Gulf exposure altogether.

This sustained instability has pushed shipping and insurance costs sharply higher.

Major tanker operators are increasingly considering alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly extending delivery times and increasing freight expenses.

War-risk premiums for vessels operating near the Gulf have surged, adding further cost pressures throughout global supply chains.

Oil markets have reacted with continued volatility.

Brent crude has recently traded above $120 per barrel, reaching some of its highest levels in years as traders weigh prolonged geopolitical disruption against uncertain diplomatic efforts.

Analysts warn that limited spare production capacity among major oil producers means markets remain highly vulnerable to further shocks, while fears persist that broader regional escalation could threaten critical Gulf energy infrastructure beyond shipping lanes alone.

Major fuel importer

For South Africa, the economic consequences are becoming increasingly significant.

As a major fuel importer, South Africa remains highly exposed to rising international oil prices, elevated freight costs and exchange rate volatility.

In response, government has extended temporary fuel levy relief measures to help cushion households and businesses from the worst immediate effects.

Under the revised relief package:

• The R3 per litre petrol levy reduction has been extended through May
• Diesel levy relief has been increased to R3.93 per litre for May, effectively reducing diesel’s general fuel levy to zero
• Partial levy relief will continue through June
• Full levy rates are scheduled to return from 1 July 2026

The total fiscal cost of the relief measures from April through June is estimated at R17.2 billion.

Remain vulnerable

Treasury says the intervention is designed to reduce inflationary pressure, support economic growth and soften the blow of soaring fuel costs.

Despite this temporary support, economists warn that South Africans remain vulnerable to substantial fuel price pressure once levy relief phases out.

Rising transport costs are expected to place upward pressure on food prices, business operating expenses and broader inflation.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is also reviewing South Africa’s fuel pricing framework as government seeks longer-term solutions to external energy shocks.

For now, while fuel levy relief provides short-term breathing room, prolonged disruption in global oil markets means South African consumers and businesses are likely to continue facing elevated economic pressure in the months ahead.

Latest forecast

Below, the latest projections for May 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 173 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 204 cents for 95 users is anticipated.

Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 496 and 497 cents per litre increase.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 422 cents in price.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $121.59 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.79/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.

April 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):